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新型冠狀病毒疫情系列之16 ── 亞洲一些地區

2020/4/19 — 15:36

資料圖片,來源:Giacomo Carra @ Unsplash

資料圖片,來源:Giacomo Carra @ Unsplash

4月17日《柳葉刀》期刊的一篇文章研究了香港在2月份的患流感人數有明顯減少,這印證了我之前的一篇文章的觀察。我的一位醫生朋友告訴我,由於香港人普遍使用口罩,他的私人診所的生意大減,過往傷風感冒是私人診所的主要收入之一。

《柳葉刀》的文章估計2020年2月的香港患流感人數減少了44%。文章估計,由於港人的公共衛生改善,這有助於對新型冠狀病毒的防治,但其幫助的力度為多大,則沒有直接的數據支持。(註1)

香港的疫情相比各地的確不嚴重。香港人除了關注中國、歐美的疫情發展外,還應該關心一些亞洲地區的發展,尤其是印尼,菲律賓等地的發展。

廣告

以下討論馬來西亞、印度、印尼和菲律賓的疫情發展。

馬來西亞

廣告

馬來西亞人口3千1百多萬,其每百萬人口的新型冠狀病毒患者為162人,死亡人數為3,與香港相若。香港的每百萬人口患者為236人。從數字看,馬來西亞的疫情並不嚴重,但其政府防控並不鬆弛,它在3月18日發出了限制社區活動令{movement control order (MCO)}。

馬來西亞希望可以在6月恢復其旅遊業,因為它關乎馬來西亞的1百30萬與旅遊業相關的工人的生計,馬來西亞準備向其酒店業發出安全和許可證明書。(註2)

印度

印度是一個很複雜的個案,它有13.5億人口,貧窮問題嚴重,資訊又不透明。若新型冠狀病毒大型爆發,可以對亞洲帶來沖擊。它目前在亞洲疫情排名榜很低,每一百萬人口只有10個個案,和0.4人死亡。這更加讓人擔心,尤其是每百萬人口,它的測試率只有234人。相對地,馬來西亞的每一百萬人口測試為2988人,香港為1萬7千人。

印度政府以新德里劃出55個高危區,印度政府最擔心的是封城對經濟的影響。它的經濟特區的約8成工業已關閉,目前不敢重開,因為大部份的需求已減少5至9份,若重開,所生產出來的產品可以賣不出去,對其短缺的資金帶來威脅。

農業對印度十分重要,它佔印度勞動人口的三份之二的生計。農產品不能過造,印度政府對農業開綠燈,封城不包括農業,也不包括對種子、肥料、穀物的運輸。

印度從日本引入十部大型的清洗巿區車輛和在新德里組織了一隊1萬4千人的防疫症街頭隊伍。(註3)

印尼

印尼人口2.6億,它在亞洲疫情排行榜也很低,每一百萬人口的感染人數只有22人,死亡2人。但這可能是低報所致,因為它的每百萬人口的測試人數只有136人。印尼的高密集的公屋區成為關注點,在首都雅加達,6萬5千人住在1萬8千所廉租屋內, 83%住戶的每月收入低於254美元,租金佔了他們收入的約3份之1。 

印尼目前的測試件只有3萬5千套。

印尼的人權組織上訴法院控告政府通過的防疫情預算案方便官員貪污和給政府過大權力。(註4)

菲律賓

菲律賓人口1億2千萬,約有1千1百萬為海外人口,以百萬人口計,菲律賓的感染人數為54人,死亡為4人,被測試人數為440人。

菲律賓狂人總統杜特爾特公開地表示可以槍殺不服從禁令的公民。他還表示不理會法律限制,可以出售政府資產用作防疫,擅自購買美國FDA批准的防疫物資。

據報菲律賓警方已拘捕超過十萬名違反封城令的巿民。(註5)

討論

我們有一種說法,一些較落後地方的疫情數字低是因為其相對的測試率低。香港的測試率(每百萬人口計)相對於台灣也十分高。

我們以香港的受測試人數作基點,估算以上討論地區的可能低報人數。分權的計算方式如下:

確診人數(分權)= 當地確診人數X(香港確診人數 / 當地受測試人數)

死亡人數(分權)= 當地死亡人數X (香港確診人數/當地受測試人數) 

我們得出的當地確診人數(分權)分別是馬來西915;印度781;印尼2808;菲律賓1926。以此數字,印尼和菲律賓成為亞洲的疫情榜首,印度躍升第7位,馬來西亞第5位。需要指出,這只是一形象的比喻,因為意大利的每一百萬人口的確診人數是2910,印尼的疫情如何低估也不可能類似於意大利般嚴重。


 

備註

註1


 

Impact assessment of non-pharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 and influenza in Hong Kong: an observational study

Open AccessPublished:April 17, 2020

The estimated 44% reduction in influenza transmission in the general community in February, 2020, was much greater than the estimated 10–15% reduction in transmission associated with school closures alone during the 2009 pandemic,18 and the 16% reduction in transmission of influenza B associated with school closures during the 2017–18 winter in Hong Kong

The measures implemented in Hong Kong are less drastic than those used to contain transmission in mainland China, and are probably more feasible in many other locations worldwide

註2

馬來西亞

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2020/04/16/mco-how-life-changed-in-30-days-and-how-malaysians-are-adapting

KUALA LUMPUR (Bernama): It has been 30 days since Malaysians started living under the movement control order (MCO) implemented on March 18 to curb the Covid-19 pandemic.

https://www.thestar.com.my/lifestyle/travel/2020/04/15/covid-19-matta-hopes-malaysian-tourism-will-recover-by-june-2021

Covid-19: MATTA hopes Malaysian tourism will recover by June 2021

https://www.thestar.com.my/lifestyle/travel/2020/04/16/covid-19-eligible-hotels-in-malaysia-to-be-certified-039clean-and-safe039-says-mah

Hotels in Malaysia will be given a “clean and safe” certification as part of a move to boost confidence in the country's tourism post Covid-19, said the Malaysian Association of Hotels (MAH).

“At industry level, we at MAH are planning a 'Clean & Safe Malaysia' campaign where hotels that fulfil a set of requirements will be certified clean and safe, endorsed by the relevant authorities.

註3

印度 India

Coronavirus Cases: 12,456

Deaths: 422

Recovered: 1,513

Coronavirus containment zones in the national Capital expanded to 55 on Tuesday. Four new areas were added to the list of hotspots in Delhi, taking the number of containment zones to 55 till the filing of the report. Balaji Apartments at Sant Nagar in Burari, the area in and around A-1B/75A Krishna Apartment in Paschim Vihar, A-280 JJ Colony in Madipur and 36/4 in East Patel Nagar were four of the places declared as Red Zones on Monday.

https://www.indiatoday.in/mail-today/story/lockdown-2-0-how-it-impacts-ailing-economy-1667426-2020-04-16

The Centre's move to allow manufacturing across Special Economic Zones (SEZs), Export Oriented Units (EOUs) and units operating from rural areas is being seen as part of the strategy for a gradual exit from the lockdown. The Home Ministry order has also allowed manufacture of IT hardware and essential goods among a slew of other activities. While many companies engaged in manufacturing are exploring the possibility of opening their factories, they are discussing the plan with other players in the supply chain. However, options are limited.

MANUFACTURING

The industry's demand for opening manufacturing - 80-odd per cent of which is shut or operating at very low utilization - was unfounded and was rejected. Opening up manufacturing at a time when demand in most sectors has crashed between 50-90% would have been suicidal. It would have only locked up precious cash in producing goods which could not be sold as shops, showrooms and malls stay shut.

AGRICULTURE

While extended lockdown means more pain for most of the industries, the agriculture sector could cheer a bit as almost all farm sector activities have been permitted during this period. With harvesting near 100% in Gujarat and 70-odd per cent in Madhya Pradesh and Punjab heading for wheat harvesting starting April 15, the farming community got a huge relief with the opening up of the sector, including allied sectors such as food processing and cold storages - vital for securing the produce.

Learning from previous experience, the Centre has this time clearly spelt out in its order that farm sector would be exempted from the extended lockdown through May 3. Accordingly, transportation of seeds, fertilisers, food grains would get the green channel. But agriculture sector experts still fear a slight delay in harvest of crops due to lockdown as policies set by the Central government are not properly executed at the local level. While harvesting of wheat has neared completion in many states, it is yet to wrap up in the key states of Haryana and Punjab.

https://www.indiatoday.in/mail-today/story/ncr-braces-for-rigorous-curbs-1667044-2020-04-15

The Delhi government has so far identified 55 containment zones as 'red zones' and high-risk areas as 'orange zones' across the city where a massive sanitisation drive will be conducted in the coming days using 60 machines, including 10 huge ones made in Japan. An additional 14,000 'Corona Foot Warriors,' comprising booth level officers (during elections), will be on ground across Delhi to spread awareness about the pandemic and keep a tight vigil.

註4

印尼 Indonesia

Coronavirus Cases: 5,136

Deaths: 469

Recovered: 446

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/04/16/tight-quarters-covid-19-threatens-health-finances-of-jakartans-in-public-housing.html

According to data from the Jakarta housing agency, approximately 65,000 people representing 18,041 households live in rusunawa that are under city management. Around 83 percent of these tenants earn monthly incomes of less than Rp 4 million (US$254.50), while their monthly rent costs anywhere from Rp 100,000 to Rp 1.5 million

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/indonesias-coronavirus-cases-surge-to-nearly-6000-highest-in-south-east-asia

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/04/16/covid-19-indonesia-on-hunt-for-pcr-testing-kits.html

Indonesia is struggling to acquire the necessary kits to conduct polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing on a massive scale given the surge in global demand, the government’s spokesperson for COVID-19 affairs has said.

Achmad Yurianto, who is also the Health Ministry’s disease control and prevention director general, told The Jakarta Post on Wednesday that the government was scrambling to procure reagents from other countries as Indonesia’s current stock of reagents would only last a week.

The supply would only be enough for 35,000 tests, he said.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/04/16/angered-by-perppu-on-pandemic-response-civil-groups-turn-to-constitutional-court.html

Now, they are taking the Perppu to the Constitutional Court, demanding the revocation of contentious provisions stipulating that officials responsible for fiscal and monetary policies cannot be criminally charged when using the state budget to counter the negative economic impacts of the pandemic.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/04/16/covid-19-online-fund-raiser-seeks-to-provide-protective-gear-supplies.html

註5

菲律賓

https://news.mb.com.ph/2020/04/15/duterte-clears-delay-in-covid-19-supplies-equipment-purchase/

In a bid to hasten the procurement process, Duterte said he will take the risk and order the purchase despite not having been issued approval by the FDA as long as the supplies and equipment are US FDA approved.

“I am clearing the way by ordering the purchase tutal walang FDA local.

But what we are trying to buy outside is approved by the FDA United States of America.

The President noted his confidence on products with US FDA approval.

https://news.mb.com.ph/2020/04/16/growing-number-of-quarantine-violators-wont-lead-to-martial-law-nograles/

Nograles warned that the government will enforce the law against those who violate the quarantine rules. He said policemen have been deployed to implement the strict stay-at-home policy following reports of many private vehicles on the road despite the lockdown.

Law enforcement authorities have been authorized to inspect private vehicles if the driver and passengers are among the authorized people outside their homes. Violators will be given tickets.

The police earlier reported the arrest of more than 100,000 persons for violating quarantine guidelines in Luzon and other places in the country.

Nograles also appealed to the public “to police your own ranks” and remind others to observe the home quarantine rules to avoid getting infected. He said the government needs the full cooperation of the public to observe the quarantine rules as the Luzon-wide lockdown reaches its “last stretch.”

https://news.mb.com.ph/2020/04/16/71-violators-of-ecq-in-private-vehicles-arrested-along-edsa/

At least 71 motorists were apprehended as police authorities started running after private vehicle owners violating the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) and social distancing rules in Metro Manila.

71 violators of ECQ in private vehicles arrested along EDSA

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