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新聞點評:香港仍是中共無法完全控制的境外地區

2019/11/25 — 15:18

【#新聞點評 Viewpoint】區議會並無實權,今次選舉結果最大影響,在 2022 特首選委會組成。先回顧一點歷史。2012 年,李嘉誠公開票投唐英年,唐在醜聞下仍奪 285 票,北京力挺下梁振英只得 689 票僅僅過半當選;2017 年,民主派與代表本地資本的自由黨結盟發起 ABC 運動,阻止梁振英連任,北京為保控制權,遂勸退梁改派林鄭月娥上陣,結果與本地資本關係緊密的曾俊華被棄保,林鄭奪 777 票當選。

今次區選大勝,民主派除原來在專業和社會服務界別的 300 票外,可望再取 117 張區議會票,令其在 1,200 人的選委會票數增至 400 多。新格局下,本地資本的槓桿地位更強。假如本地資本與民主派結盟,隨時有足夠票數自行決定特首人選;北京要避免出現這種「政變」,恐怕只能重新統戰本地資本,重回董曾時期京港政商聯盟,試圖在內外交困下穩住局勢。短期就看林鄭會否被快速撤換,由與本地資本關係緊密的權貴例如唐英年、陳德霖取代。

北京與本地代理人的關係從來複雜,香港仍是中共無法完全控制的境外地區。

廣告

District Councils are powerless, the most important implication of the election results is on the composition of 2022 Chief Executive Election Committee. Look at the history. In 2012, Li Ka-shing openly voted for the scandal-troubled Henry Tang (who secured 285 votes), while Leung Chun-ying was only barely elected despite of Beijing's strong mobilization (who secured 689 votes); in 2017, democrats and pro-local capital Liberal Party tried to stop the re-election of Leung Chun-ying by organizing the ABC campaign, and Beijing defended its control power by replacing Leung with Carrie Lam (who secured 777 votes as a result of the abandonment of pro-local capital John Tsang).

The landslide victory of District Council elections means that on top of its 300 votes within professional and social services sub-sectors, democrats will gain 117 votes in District Council sub-sector. Under this new composition, the leveraging position of local capital will be strengthened. If local capital chooses to work with democrats, they probably will get enough votes to decide the Chief Executive on their own; If Beijing wants to prevent such a coup d'état, it will have no choice but to re co-opt local capitalists by returning to the Beijing-HK state-business alliance under Tung and Tsang era. The short-term indicator will be whether or not Carrie Lam will be swiftly replaced by pro-local capital elites such as Henry Tang or Norman Chan.

廣告

The relationship between Beijing and its local collaborators is always complicated, and Hong Kong remains an offshore jurisdiction outside the full control of the Chinese Communist Party.

▋延伸閱讀 Further reading
「反送中」是一場香港自治運動/方志恒
The Future of Hong Kong’s Autonomy/Brian C. H. Fong

#區議會選舉 #特首選舉 #特首選委會
#DistrictCouncil #ChiefExecutive #CCP #China #HongKong

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