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Which one is scarier: TB, the flu, or Conoravirus?

2019/3/19 — 20:13

立場科學版編按:據流行病學慣例,病死率 (case fatility rate) 以病死人數除以受感染總人數計算。此為作者自己對各病症死亡率的詮釋方法。

As the chart below amply illustrates, the global death rate of COVID-19 remains puny at 0.00006%, and even when annualised, stands at 0.00027%.

Even assuming the death toll will climb tenfold from here, the figure will only exceed Whooping Cough (0.0021%) and still much below seasonal flu at 0.0051%:

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Source: WHO, CRC

Source: WHO, CRC

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So, why are people not panicking about the flu with much higher death rate, or for that matter, the even deadlier TB with a death rate 0.021% (which is 4 times as severe as the flu)?

Although total death number will continue to climb, the fast approaching warm summer weather should slow if not stop the spread of this new form of flu, as the seasonality pattern in the US indicates typically a steep decline starts in April, bottoming in July:

Plus the fact that the global death trajectory (see grey line below) should moderate further given China (the biggest affected region) numbers have stablised, with growth rates falling by the day.

Despite obvious conclusion from above, we continue to publish the disease figures in our regular chart updates:

Linkedin update

Facebook update

hoping to do our part in dissipating what looks like dispropotionate reactions by politicians and the public alike.

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